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基于FAHP的长输油气管道风险评价模型研究
Risk assessment model for long-distance oil and gas pipelines based on FAHP
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- DOI:
- 作者:
- 陈美荣
Chen Meirong
- 作者单位:
- 中国石油华北油田公司第四采油厂，河北廊坊 065000
- 关键词:
- 长输油气管道；模糊层次分析法；风险评价；权重值；高原地质灾害
long-distance oil and gas pipeline; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; risk assessment; weight value; plateau geological disaster
- 摘要:
- 针对高原严寒地区长输油气管道面临的多源复合风险难以量化的问题，提出一种融合模糊数学与
层次分析法的综合风险评价模型。以青海油田M油气管道为研究对象，在系统梳理管体缺陷与腐蚀、第三
方破坏、自然地质灾害、运营管理等影响因素的基础上，划分准则层和指标层，构建模糊一致判断矩阵，
借助行和归一化方法计算各层次权重值；依据GB/T 42033—2022《油气管道完整性评价技术规范》和GB
32167—2015《油气输送管道完整性管理规范》，通过建立隶属度函数将定性指标转化为[0，1]区间的定量
评分，采用加权合成法得到综合风险值R。将上述方法应用于M油气管道的4个典型管段，评价结果将
M-01管段（LH-GS段）识别为高风险（IV级），与现场检测数据及历史缺陷记录高度吻合，验证了模型
的工程适用性。研究成果可为高原地区长输管道的分级管控与检维修决策提供量化依据，具有工程应用推
广价值。
To address the difficulty of quantifying the multi-source composite risks confronting long-distance oil and gas pipelines in cold plateau regions, this paper proposes a comprehensive risk assessment model integrating fuzzy mathematics with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). By taking the M oil and gas pipeline in the Qinghai Oilfield as the research object, the influencing factors including pipeline defects and corrosion, third-party damage, natural geological disasters, and operational management are systematically reviewed and organized into a criterion layer and an indicator layer. Meanwhile, a fuzzy consistent judgment matrix is constructed, and the weight values of each layer are calculated by adopting the row-sum normalization method. In accordance with GB/T 42033—2022 Specification for Oil and Gas Pipeline Integrity Assessment and GB 32167—2015 Oil and Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Specification, membership functions are established to convert qualitative indicators into quantitative scores within the [0,1] interval, and the weighted synthesis method is applied to obtain the comprehensive risk value R. The above-mentioned method is applied to four typical segments of the M pipeline. The assessment results identify the segment M-01 (LH-GS) as high-risk (Level IV), which is highly consistent with on-site inspection data and historical defect records, thus verifying the engineering applicability of the model. The research results provide a quantitative basis for graded risk control as well as inspection and maintenance decision-making of long-distance pipelines in plateau regions, and hold popularization and application significance.