国际总承包工程报价风险分析方法
Risk Analysis Methods of Quotation Making for International EPC Engineering Projects
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- DOI:
- 作者:
- 蔡江汇
CAI Jiang-hui
- 作者单位:
- 胜利工程设计咨询有限责任公司, 山东东营 257026
Shengli Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Dongying 257026,China
- 关键词:
- 国际总承包工程|风险分析|投标报价
international EPC engineering projects|risk analysis|bidding quotation
- 摘要:
- 国际总承包工程投标报价的情况复杂,风险与利润共存,要在报价中找到风险和利润的平衡点,必须对工程的风险进行分析和评价。文章探讨了将工作分解结构(WBS)、风险敏感性和概率树法的概念引入国际工程报价中的方法,介绍了国际工程风险的种类、识别和分析方法,并对具体操作过程进行了说明。用概率树的方法将风险分解到项目WBS不同层次的作业中,能够有效控制国际工程投标报价的不确定因素,有利于以合理的价格获得工程项目。
Making quotations for international engineering projects is complicated. In order to find the equilibrium point between risk and profit, analyzing and evaluating work must be carried out. This paper discusses the approach that introduces the conceptions of work breakdown structure ( WBS ), risk sensitivity and probability tree into international engineering project quotation making. It describes the risk categories, identification and analysis methods of an international engineering project and explains concrete operations. Applying the probability tree method to decompose the risks into different hierarchies of project WBS can effectively control uncertain factors of bidding quotation and is propitious to win engineering project.2009,s1(s1): 194-197 收稿日期：2009-3-6分类号：F407.22作者简介：蔡江汇（1972-），男，浙江嵊县人，经济师，毕业于江汉石油学院，现从事技术经济和工程造价工作。