油气管道输量的不确定性与管道设计风险分析
Unfixed Transfer Quantity of Oil and Gas Pipeline and Risk Analysis in Pipeline Design
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- DOI:
- 作者:
- 刘先涛
Liu Xiantao
- 作者单位:
- 西南石油学院 637001 四川省南充市
Nanchong, Sichuan
- 关键词:
- 管道;输送能力;风险分析;经济效益
Pipe line;Delivery capacity;Risk analysis;Economic benefit
- 摘要:
- 在油气管道设计时,存在着许多不确定性因素,其中管道输送量的不确定性影响最突出,这就可能使设计的最优方案偏离实际的最优方案,从而使管道设计具有一定的风险。本文提出一种油气管道设计风险分析方法,并进行了实例计算。通过这种分析,可以减少管道设计中的风险性,有助于提高油气管道输送的经济效益。
In design of oil gas transfer pipeline there are many unfixed factors among which the transfer quantity the most one to affect the design. Therefor those unfixed factors can make the design plan deviate the real optimum one, So the pipeline design has a certain risk. This article introduces a method on risk analysis in pipeline design and provides a practice example. By this method the risk can be reduced and the economic effect of pipeline transfer can be increased.1997,5(5): 10-11 收稿日期：1997-4-3参考文献：
1 曲慎扬等.原油管道工程.北京:石油工业出版社，1991
2 W. 1. Fabrycky and G. J. Thuesen. Economic Decision Analysis, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.:Prentice-Hall. Inc.，1980
3 黄渝祥、邢爱芳.工程经济学.上海:同济大学出版社，1985