投标阶段报价风险评估方法研究
Study on Approach to Quoting Risk Assessment in Bidding
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- DOI:
- 作者:
- 陈志勇, 王坚
CHEN Zhi-yong
- 作者单位:
- 中国石油工程建设公司伊拉克分公司, 北京 100120
China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corp.Irak Branch,Beijing 100120
- 关键词:
- 投标报价;成本风险评估;Monte Carlo模拟;工程成本
quoting in bidding;cost risk assessment;Monte Carlo Simulation;project cost
- 摘要:
- 目前在工程投标报价工作中还没有成熟的成本风险评估方法,文章将风险评估方法和蒙特卡罗模拟技术(MC)应用于投标报价风险评估工作中,提出了一种工程项目成本风险评价方法(CRA-MC),该方法基于风险因素直接分析成本波动情况,而不必考虑成本子项之间的波动相关性,同时较好地解决了MC模拟缺乏必要工程数据的困难。文章最后通过实际案例探讨其实用性。
At present,there is no mature cost risk assessment method in project bidding.In this paper,an approach called CRA-MC is proposed to assess quoting risk in bidding by applying Monte Carlo Simulation(MC) and risk analysis tool.The approach based on risk elements is able to analyze cost fluctuation directly and is needless to consider the fluctuation relations among cost sub-elements.At the same time,it solves better the problem of insufficient engineering data in applying MC.Finally,the approach is demonstrated by an example to show its usefulness.2011,3(3): 10-13 收稿日期：2010-12-19分类号：F224.0作者简介：陈志勇(1963-),男,江苏泰兴人,工程师,1987年毕业于江苏广播电视大学工业与民用建筑专业,现主要从事工程投标报价、商务谈判和合同管理工作参考文献：
[1] David T Hulett.Project cost risk analysis[EB-OL] .Http:--www.projectrisk.com-welcome-cost_risk_paper-cost_risk_paper.html.
[2] As-NZ 4360-2004,Risk Management[S] .
[3] IEEE 1490-2003,Project Management Body of Knowledge[S].