当前位置：首页 > 过刊浏览->2026年第52卷第3期
基于社会风险的输气管道周边人口分布规划
Societal risk-based population distribution planning for gas transmission pipelines
浏览(14) 下载(0)
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 齐先志，黄桂锋，林光然，石磊，赵巍
- 作者单位:
- 1.中国石化（大连）石油化工研究院有限公司，辽宁大连 116000 2.中国石化销售华南分公司，广东广州 510665
- 关键词:
- 输气管道；破裂；人口分布规划；社会风险； F-N曲线
gas transmission pipeline; rupture; population distribution planning; societal risk; F-N curve
- 摘要:
- 为有效管控输气管道社会风险并科学规划周边人口分布，建立了一套适配城镇化沿线场区的社会风险
计算与沿线人口分布定量规划方法。以管道破裂喷射火事故为研究对象，采用平均破裂频率修正模型计算管道
区段失效概率，结合泄漏引燃概率与热辐射传播规律，量化不同区域的人员死亡比例，进而预测事故可能造成
的死亡人数。在此基础上，构建社会风险F-N曲线评估模型，实现对风险可接受水平的定量判定。该方法计算
简便，调研工作量小，具备较强的工程适用性。通过将管道周边区域划分为平行条状网格，并引入“人员在管
道敷设方向均匀分布”的假设，以可接受死亡人数上限为约束条件，提出了基于网格化管理的管道沿线区域整
体人口规模与空间分布规划方法，实现了从传统的“点状安全距离管控”向“线状整体人口容量规划”的转
变。该方法实用性强，可在有效控制风险的同时，促进管道周边土地资源的合理利用与优化配置。
To effectively control societal risk and scientifically plan the population distribution in the vicinity of gas transmission pipelines, a complete method for societal risk calculation and population distribution planning is established. This paper focuses on pipeline rupture jet fire accidents and calculates the failure probability of pipeline segments using an average rupture frequency correction model. By incorporating the ignition probability of leakage and thermal radiation propagation laws, the fatality rate in different areas is quantified, allowing the estimation of the number of potential fatalities. On this basis, a societal risk F-N curve evaluation model is constructed to realize quantitative determination of risk acceptability levels. The method involves straightforward calculations and requires minimal field surveys, making it highly practical for engineering applications. By dividing the area surrounding the pipeline into parallel strip grids, assuming that the population is uniformly distributed along the pipeline alignment, and using the upper limit of acceptable fatalities as a constraint, a grid-based planning method for overall population size and spatial distribution is proposed. This approach enables a shift from traditional point-based safety distance control to linear population capacity planning. The proposed method has strong practicality and can promote the rational utilization and optimized allocation of land resources around pipelines while effectively controlling risk.