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基于工况参数分类的含体积型缺陷管道剩余强度评价
Residual strength evaluation of pipelines with volumetric defects based on classification of working condition parameters
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- DOI:
- 作者:
- 邢洁荣
- 作者单位:
- 中国石油华北油田公司，河北任丘 062552
- 关键词:
- 体积型缺陷；剩余强度；评价方法；偏差因子；相关性分析
volumetric defect; residual strength; evaluation method; deviation factor; correlation analysis
- 摘要:
- 为提高现有含体积型缺陷管道剩余强度评价结果的准确性和稳定性，在收集72组爆破试验数据的基
础上，引入偏差因子以量化各评价方法的保守性与评估准确性；通过斯皮尔曼相关系数分析偏差因子与工况参
数的相关性，系统对比不同工况条件下各评价方法的结果差异，最终建立基于工况参数分类的序贯式评价流
程。结果显示，ASME B31G-2评价方法在整体试验数据上的适应性较差；采用单一评价方法难以在全工况范
围内实现安全性与经济性的最优平衡；修正后的序贯评价流程偏差因子均值为1.142，标准差为0.215，误判率
降至8.33%，在评价准确性上优于ASME B31G-1、ASME B31G-2、ASME B31G-3及PCORRC这4类方
法，在评价稳定性与工程安全性上均优于全部对比方法，可有效消除评价过程中的系统偏差。研究结果可为油
气埋地管道现场快速检测腐蚀分级管控与风险评估提供可靠的理论支撑与工程参考。
To enhance the accuracy and stability of the residual strength evaluation results of existing pipelines with volumetric defects, based on the collection of 72 sets of blasting test data, a deviation factor was introduced to quantify the conservatism and accuracy of each evaluation method. The correlation between the deviation factor and the working condition parameters was analyzed through the Spearman correlation coefficient. The differences in the results of each method under different working conditions were systematically compared. Finally, a sequential evaluation process based on the classification of working condition parameters was formed. The results show that the ASME B31G-2 evaluation method has poor adaptability in the overall data. It is difficult to achieve the optimal balance between economy and safety under all working conditions by using a single evaluation method. The mean deviation factor of the modified sequential evaluation process is 1.142, with the standard deviation of 0.215, and the misjudgment rate is reduced to 8.33%. The accuracy is superior to the results of ASME B31G-1, ASME B31G-2, ASME B31G-3 and PCORRC methods, and the stability and safety are superior to all comparison methods. The systematic biases during the evaluation process are also eliminated. The research results can provide a reliable theoretical support and engineering reference for on-site rapid detection,corrosion classification and risk assessment of buried oil and gas pipelines.