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基于DBSCAN算法的油气腐蚀管道风险评价
Risk assessment of corroded oil and gas pipelines based on DBSCAN algorithm
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- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1001-2206.2026.01.010
- 作者:
- 崔长军, 周雪峰, 王世伟, 王验军
CUI Changjun, ZHOU Xuefeng, WANG Shiwei, WANG Yanjun
- 作者单位:
- 1. 河北华北石油天成实业集团有限公司, 河北任丘 062552;2. 华港燃气集团有限公司, 河北任丘 062552;3. 中国石油天然气股份有限公司河南储气库分公司, 河南平顶山 467200
1. Hebei North China Petroleum Tiancheng Industrial Group Co., Ltd., Renqiu 062552, China;2. Huagang Gas Group Co., Ltd., Renqiu 062552, China;3. Henan Gas Storage Branch of PetroChina Company Limited, Pingdingshan 467200, China
- 关键词:
- 密度聚类算法; 客观权重法; 风险评价; 管道腐蚀; 腐蚀速率
DBSCAN;CRITIC method;risk assessment;pipeline corrosion;corrosion rate
- 摘要:
管道腐蚀风险评估是保障油气管道安全运行的重要措施，传统方法存在局部缺陷评估效率低、多指标权重分配主观等问题。基于密度聚类算法对管道腐蚀速率和里程数据进行智能化分段，计算各管段概率分布模型95%分位数对应的腐蚀速率，并将其作为维修点数量估算的基准，再结合客观权重法融合多项指标获取不同管段的风险状态，该算法可提升评估效率与准确性。结果表明，当邻域半径为4和最小样本数为6时，可将122.5 km的管道划分为65个腐蚀特性相似的管段；95%分位数腐蚀速率方法下5年内的维修点数量为5 732个，与全线最大速率法相比，维修点减少了41%，既覆盖了高风险缺陷，又避免了过度维护，符合现场实际需求；综合评价后，低、中、高和极高风险管段的占比分别为16.9%、40.0%、24.6%和18.5%，可实现管道的分级分类管理。评价方法和研究成果可为油气管道检维修策略的制定提供科学依据。
Corrosion risk assessment is the core link to ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines. Traditional methods suffer from some problems, such as low efficiency of local defect assessment and subjective weight distribution of multiple indicators. In response, this paper proposes a risk assessment model based on density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). Through the DBSCAN algorithm, the corrosion rate and mileage data of pipelines were intelligently segmented. The corrosion rate corresponding to the 95th percentile of the probability distribution model of each pipe section was calculated and taken as the benchmark for the estimation of maintenance point number. The criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) method was combined to integrate multiple indicators, so as to obtain the risk status of different pipe sections. The results show that when the neighborhood radius is 4 and the minimum sample size is 6, the 122.5 km pipeline can be divided into 65 pipe sections with similar corrosion characteristics. In the case of the 95th percentile corrosion rate method, the number of maintenance points within five years is 5 732, which is reduced by 41% compared with that from the full-line maximum rate method. It not only covers high-risk defects but also avoids excessive maintenance, which meets the actual on-site needs. Comprehensive evaluation reveals the proportions of low-risk, medium-risk, high-risk, and extremely high-risk pipe sections are 16.9%, 40.0%, 24.6%, and 18.5%, respectively, with the hierarchical and classified management of pipelines achieved. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of oil and gas pipeline inspection and maintenance strategies.